CONTENDERS

SOLAR CHARGED  - 2yo b/br f Charge Forward - Soul Singer (by Danehill (USA) Trainer John O’Shea (Randwick) 2 Starts 2 Wins.

Anyone who knows John O’Shea, can determine from his best poker face that his filly Solar Charged is probably the best horse he has trained since Private Steer. This means I have elevated her above Racing To Win. I also have no doubt this filly is better than her Group 1 winning sire Charge Forward. The scary thing about Solar Charged is that we haven’t seen the best of this filly yet. I have no doubt she will be better when allowed to settle just behind the pace and saved for one explosive run. Her action is so effortless that she appears to be loafing when in fact she is notching up quick sectionals. She is the real deal! TAB fixed odds have her at $4.60 favourite for the Slipper. The fact is, if the Slipper was run this week and Solar Charged drew a good barrier, she would start closer to $3.50 favourite.

MILITARY ROSE - 2yo br f General Nediym - Bella Maddelena (by Flying Spur) Trainer Ms G Heinrich (Gold Coast) 4 Starts 4 Wins

I could not believe the amazing performance from Military Rose, when winning the Magic Millions. In that race the pressure was on her from the get-go, and she performed at both ends, showing incredible tenacity and constitution. You rarely see a horse, let alone a 2YO filly, endure so much pressure in a race then still put a space on their rivals! I rate the win by Military Rose in this year’s Magic Millions as the best 2yo performance of the season. TAB fixed odds have her price for the Slipper completely wrong, assessing her as a $13 chance. Military Rose should be a $6 chance, and all you punters that love to get overs on a horse (let’s face it who doesn’t?), don’t miss out on the crazy odds on offer!

PRETENDERS

CHANCE BYE - 2yo b f Snitzel - Rouge Femme (by Red Ransom (USA) Trainer M Tubman (Kembla Grange) 3 Stars 3 Wins

It’s easy to get caught up in the emotion that embodies the fairytale that is Chance Bye. Who wouldn’t be ecstatic to own such a filly - she was a cheap buy, purchased with borrowed money and has now won over $400,000 and is trained by the very likable M. Tubman. My problem with this filly is that I don’t consider her to be in the same class as a dozen other 2yo’s I have seen this season. She has a great deal of natural speed, but I don’t think she has the versatility or scope to deal with the pressure cooker that is the Golden Slipper. Furthermore, I don’t think she will beat John O’Shea’s second stringer, Amber’s Waltz again. Chance Bye is rated a $7 chance to win the Slipper, I rate her a $20 chance and therefore, she is a PRETENDER and not a CONTENDER!

ELIMBARI - 2yo b f Fastnet Rock - Shalt Not (by St. Covet) Trainer K A Lees (Broadmeadow)

Again, I struggle to see how this filly is rated so highly. Does hype and media play such a big part in framing a market?  Surely it’s not weight of money in this instance.  Unlike say Denman in the Guineas, who has such an impressive winning strike-rate, resulting in a large liability should he win, Elimbari has not greeted the judge enough times to generate such a liability, at her first career start, she defeated Celts and Valour, neither of which are in Slipper contention, and at her second start, she got lapped by Solar Charged. Once again, I cannot fathom how this filly can be in the 5^th line of betting for the Slipper. She may turn into a very good filly later in her career; however, she is no chance of winning the slipper and should be 25-1.

NOTE: I will continue to update my thoughts of the Slipper every week. Some new chances will come out of the woods, and others will drop off. Stay tuned for my honest and hard hitting appraisals.