The Whipsarecracking Breeding Theory

Can you breed by a method? Were this so all major breeding ‘methods’ would have succeed and we would have no debate. I am familiar with these terms and have bred to some of these ideas –

Varola ‘Chefs-de-Race’ and the antecedents starting with Vuillier
Dr. Roman, a variation on Varola
Werk nicks
Line Breeding
Romy Faversham and his mentor’s idea of breeding to superior females.

What bothers me about these is the inconsistency of the application of the idea. Would it not hold true that the best race horses conformed every time to the ideas espoused by any or one of these theories? I believed these things and ideas, and spent a considerable amount of money following these in to the recesses of poorness and poverty. I hold a view strongly that none of these notions are any where near the mark.

We believe that in breeding the best patterns repeat and as in history we need to pay heed to these repeating patterns. We have examined all contemporary breeding theories and all fall down when they are asked to perform consistently over time. Whenever you read of exceptions, or watch out for that, there has been a breakdown in the basic precept.

Readers will by now note that we seldom see repeating patterns involving the sire line, or from certain sire being repeated with a made up value attributed to that sire, being the best way to breed…mathematical values ascribed by human invention are not the answer either. That is a human intercession which has an intellectual arrogance around it. There has never been any proof for these musings either.

Rather we should like to say that our original research has endeavoured to debunk these fallacious philosophies of breeding. We were rather taken by what the statistical methods could show if a view of the data could illuminate nature’s secret. After 10 years the secret of nature is clear to see. It was a tortuous path to get there…cost me a fortune proving all the fallacious theories.

Of the above ideas, we see that they can not offer a proof that will stand the test of time and without exception, be an idea which can be without supplementary explanation, be applied constantly, without deviation. Not one of the above meet these criteria. The theory which Whipsarecracking believes to be nature’s answer is able to be consistently applied, in advance. The only problems we can not cover are those of after the birth of the foal or the sale of the yearling. No theory deals with these exigencies.

The ‘method’ we have heard proffered of recent time, involves an application of Line Breeding – which is loosely defined as this –

FOR a COLT
A Male and Female strain of a sire
Two male strains of a mare

FOR a FILLY

A Male and a Female of a mare
Two female strains of a sire

This is an interesting notion and one often seen. Getting it to work EVERY time is the difficulty – it doesn’t. The problem is in the flawed concept of inherent and residual risk. In statistical analysis we take a view on either value…the money markets do this all the time in working out their trades in Futures and Derivatives. Most of the Derivative trades are open to endless analysis and conceptual models of might happen within a perfect world of solid state variables – ask the sub-prime players, it is just not like that in reality.

These techniques were available to me and applied when at my wits end and little success to show for my endeavours and I thought why not see if recurring patterns exist. Applying some reasonably complex techniques I was able to discern what these patterns are.

Rommy Faversham and his mentor touched on this but their ideas can not with rigor be applied on all pedigrees. Even in their book, they were unable to make the idea stick consistently over time…this is the nub of the problem – making the concept stick without deviation or supplementary explanation to support the basic tenet.

Of all the ideas above, Whipsarecarcking believe’s in none of them. There is no method…only natures and this is a tad more complex than these simple explanations.

Here’s a mating we all know, recommended to purchasers for a simple METHOD that is easily seen and obviously apparent –

Here we can see the simple PATTERN, the METHOD; it is to the important mare Lalun. On this basis the recommendation was made to purchase Racing to Win. But is this all there was to it…in my opinion no…the answer lay elsewhere. As I have commented before, Lalun traces to a VERY important ancestor, her family is the answer to this mating.

Alinghi is another –

Again we see the double of Lalun. Keen observers will be aware that breeders in Europe and Coolmore seemed to have cottoned on to this as a great ‘nick’.

However, compare the nick to the number of times it HAS NOT worked…gross generalisations are dangerous. That it can be seen to work in some but not all conforms so when it is seen working, the pattern does not confer accuracy for the pattern when it is observed to have worked. If this pattern was the key, then it should work every time – and it has not worked every time. Most astute pedigree viewers will know this to be true

Both the above have a ‘magic’ strain that made these race horses what they were…and it had little to do with Lalun, bless her.